My guide to fan excitement

Fan behavior is always very interesting, entertaining, and most of the time annoying. Possibly the most annoying of all is fan overreaction to early season success.. Most Big 12 teams play 3 cupcakes and 1 "tough" game in the non-conference schedule, so it's fairly realistic to assume every Big 12 team will start conference play with either a 3-1 or 4-0 record. So for all you overly enthusiastic homers out there, don't go predicting a dream season if your team starts 4-0. Remember, your team could start 6-0 and finish 7-5, if your 5 toughest games come in the second half of the season.

To temper some unnecessary early season fan excitement I am going to provide a breakdown of what you should expect for each team’s first 6 games. Then, I’ll tell you why you should or shouldn't get excited during the first 6 game stretch.

Baylor

My Expectations:
at Wake Forest - Loss
UConn - Win
Northwestern St - Win
Kent State - Win
at Oklahoma - Loss
at Iowa State - Loss

Get excited if...you win every game but OU. That would be a fantastic start and probably means you will make a bowl game for the first time since 1994.
Be disappointed if...you start 2-4 (beating NW St and Kent State). Baylor wants to “move to that next level" and a 2-4 start would not be a signal to book the Uhaul .
Most important game: At Iowa State. These are not the two worst teams in the Big 12, but a lot of people think they are. National perception of the biggest loser hangs in the balance.

Colorado

My Expectations:
Colorado State - Win
at Toledo - Win
Wyoming - Win
at West Virginia - Loss
at Texas - Loss
Kansas - Loss

Get excited if...you beat either West Virginia or Kansas. West Virginia is the more likely "W" because Bill Stewart still doesn't know how many days there are in a week.
Be disappointed if...you only beat Toledo and Wyoming. Last I checked a 2-4 start doesn't equate to the 10 win season Dan Hawkins predicted.
Most important game: Kansas. Colorado can play good football, at times. Beating Kansas at home would be a great win for Hawkins and Co.

Iowa State

My Expectations:
North Dakota St - Win
Iowa - Loss
at Kent St - Win
Army - Win
Kansas State - Win
at Kansas - Loss

Get excited if...you beat Iowa. I went back and forth on predicting that as a win for the Clones. A 5-1 start would give ISU fans even more proof that Chizik was a bad coach.
Be disappointed if...you only beat NDSU and Army. Adjusting to a new Head Coach can be tricky, so a 2-4 start is a possibility.
Most important game: Iowa. A win against the Hawkeyes in Rhoads' second game as coach would be huge for Cyclone morale after the disasterous '08 season.

Kansas

My Expectations:
Northern Colorado - Win
at UTEP - Win
Duke - Win
Southern Miss - Win
Iowa State - Win
at Colorado - Win

Be excited if...you are undefeated and you don't lose one of your top-notch players to injury or suspension for climbing through a Taco Bell drive-thru window.

Be disappointed if...you lose one or two of these games. Your final 6 games are waaayyy tougher than your first 6, so starting even 5-1 could lead to a 6-6 season.
Most important game: At Colorado. If Kansas comes in undefeated, they will have a near top 10 national ranking. That just might be enough to get the fans fired up in Boulder.

Kansas State

My Expectations:
Umass - Win
at Louisiana-Laf - Win
at UCLA - Loss
Tennessee Tech - Win
at Iowa State - Loss
at Texas Tech - Loss

Be excited if...you beat either UCLA or Iowa State. Neither team is amazing, but that would mean K State doesn't suck as bad as I think they will.
Be disappointed if...you get blown out by either UCLA or Iowa State. Your cupcake games are so easy they shouldn't be a problem. If they give you trouble, your season could end up worse than Gigli.
Most important game: at Iowa State. If Snyder can get the Wildcats to beat Iowa State at a neutral sight the old man just might still have some magic left in those 1990 glasses frames.

Missouri

My Expectations:
at Illinois - Loss
Bowling Green - Win
Furman - Win
at Nevada - Win
Nebraska - Loss
at Oklahoma State - Loss

Be excited if...you beat either Illinois or Nebraska. Missouri has a lot to prove this season after losing a ton of key cogs. Picking off Illinois or Nebraska would do a lot for the inexperienced players’ confidence.
Be disappointed if...you lose at Nevada. Nevada is no joke, but if Mizzou wants to maintain their current status as a good football program, they can't lose games to teams like Nevada.
Most important game: Nebraska. This will be a huge game for both teams, and it could determine the Big 12 North champ.

Nebraska

My Expectations:
Florida Atlantic - Win
Arkansas State - Win
at Virginia Tech - Loss
Louisiana-Laf - Win
at Missouri - Win
Texas Tech - Win

Be excited if...you are 6-0. That would likely mean Zach Lee is the real deal, with wins at V Tech and Mizzou. Be happy even if you are 5-1 with the loss coming from either Virginia Tech, Mizzou, or Texas Tech .
Be disappointed if...you are 3-3. This would equal the same start the Huskers had last season and indicate the team hasn't made much progress under Pelini in year #2.
Most important game: at Missouri. The crowd in Columbia will be hostile and Nebraska hasn't won there since 2001.

Oklahoma

My Expectations:
BYU - Win
Idaho St - Win
Tulsa - Win
at Miami (The U) - Win
Baylor - Win
Texas - Win

Be excited if...you beat Texas. In the eyes of the Sooner fans this is the only game on the schedule this season.
Be disappointed if...you lose to Texas. See explanation above.
Most important game: at Miami...kidding.

Oklahoma State

My Expectations:
Georgia - Win
Houston - Win
Rice - Win
Grambling - Win
at Texas A&M - Win
Missouri - Win

Be excited if...you are 6-0 and you don't lose one of your stars to injury or some off-the-field shennanigans. Hell, just be excited if you are 6-0.
Be disappointed if...you lose to either A&M or Mizzou. This means your team is a fraud.
Most important game: Georgia. One of the biggest non-conference games in the country. If Oklahoma State wins this one, it shows they may be one of the big boys.

Texas

My Expectations:
Louisiana-Monroe - Win
at Wyoming - Win
Texas Tech - Win
UTEP - Win
Colorado - Win
Oklahoma - Loss

Be excited if...you beat Oklahoma. Much like the Sooner fans, Longhorn fans view this as the only game that matters this season.
Be disappointed if...you lose to Oklahoma. See explanation above.
Most important game: Texas Tech...kidding.

Texas A&M

My Expectations:
New Mexico - Win
Utah State - Win
UAB - Win
Arkansas - Loss
Oklahoma State - Loss
at Kansas State - Win

Be excited if...you beat Arkansas in the “Battle of the Begrudged Year #2 Coaches.” Who will show the most improvement under their big name coach?
Be disappointed if...you lose at K State. If you lose this game you will likely not win a game in the Big 12, and this would make my prediction of you finishing ahead of Baylor look foolish.
Most important game: at Kansas State. See explanation above.

Texas Tech

My Expectations:
North Dakota - Win
Rice - Win
at Texas - Loss
at Houston - Win
New Mexico - Win
Kansas State - Win

Be excited if...your team doesn't look like they have missed a beat offensively. I expect that to be the case. Taylor Potts will likely be a household name by the time you play Texas.
Be disappointed if...you somehow lose to one of the 5 teams not named Texas and/or Texas blows you out.
Most important game: Texas. Can the Red Raiders be a perennial power under Mike Leach?

Just remember fans: You can't win a National Title or Conference Title during the first 6 games, but you can definitely lose one.

Cheer hard and loud, but please, do not get overly excited after the first 6 games of the season. That really annoys me, and you don't want to do that now, do you?