Sub 19 by 2012

Last weekend Usain Bolt lowered the 100m world record by .11 seconds...pretty amazing considering that the lowest single drop in world record times since the advent of fully automatic times (FAT) was in 1999 when Maurice Green ran a 9.79 to break the previous WR set by Donovan Bailey's 9.84. But what I thought was more interesting is that Bolt's time of 9.58 marked only the second time since the advent of FAT systems that the 100 meter world record is less than half of the 200m world record (19.30/2 = 9.65). The only other time this occurred was when LeRoy Burrell lowered the 100m WR to 9.85 and Pietro Mennea's 200m WR (set in 1979) stood at 19.72. Less than two years later, during the summer of 1996, Michael Johnson established the 200m WR at 19.32, nearly half a second faster than where the world record stood at the beginning of the summer. I thought it was interesting and possibly a predictor of what we might see in the near future for Bolt.

Establishing a correlation between the 100m & 200m world records is a shaky subject - the races are quite different and I can't say that I know that there should be any set relationship between the two, beyond the fact that both are continually getting faster and faster. But just for fun I did a some relatively basic calculations to try to establish a correlation and then used that to see what happens when we apply Bolt's 9.58 speed to the 200 meters. To do this I calculated the average velocity in meters per second for the 100m & 200m world records each year dating back to 1968. (1968 because that appeared to be the point at which FAT times became the standard for world records). After calculating the average velocity, I calculated the ratios between the 100m & 200m average velocity, which I could then apply to the new standard for human speed set by Usain Bolt.

Throughout the sample, the 100m avg velocities are measurably less than the 200m avg velocities - typically by a difference of somewhere between .03 and .19 m/s. Those numbers may seem small, but when applied to an event that is measured in hundredths or even thousandths of a second, that's number is large enough to make a significant difference. In his world record setting 100m Bolt, who has always been considered a better 200m guy, had an average velocity actually almost .08 m/s greater than in his best 200m. As mentioned in the first paragraph, the only other time this has happened among world record marks in the last 41 years was just prior to Johnson shattering the 200m record. And I don't think this difference is going to last long - it is apparent to me that we are on the cusp of a pretty significant drop in the 200m WR. Not just because of what Michael Johnson did the last time this situation occurred - but because all of the data I reviewed shows that the world record 200m races should be faster (higher avg velocity) than in the world record 100m races. But by how much?

The most conservative estimate at where this record will land next can be figured by taking the minimum ratio between the velocities throughout the entire data set (excluding where the records currently stand) and apply that to Bolt's avg velocity in his world record setting 100m of 10.438 m/s. The resulting time comes out to be 19.18 seconds - and as I said, this is the most conservative estimate. If I take the average (mean & median both spit out pretty similar results) ratio and apply it to 10.438 m/s over 200m, the result goes down to 19.04. And finally, If we apply the maximum ratio of the last 41 years to Bolt's average velocity - essentially doing to the record what Michael Johnson did to it in the Atlanta Olympics - the result is 18.81 seconds to cover 200 meters.

As I said before, this analysis is far from being sophisticated enough to be considered accurate - but I think its logical enough that I can say with a good deal of confidence that we are just around the corner from a sub 19 second 200m - if not tomorrow during the World Championship 200m final in Berlin, I'd be willing to bet that it happens before the end of the 2012 Olympic Games.